What Reza Pahlavi said and didn't say
How his latest speech should be interpreted
As the national uprising in Iran enters its second month, Reza Pahlavi delivered an address to the Iranian people carried on TV networks. Here he outlined how Iranians have already accomplished so much, and urged further help and support from the international community especially in bypassing internet censorship. Above all else, he underlined Iranians’ sense of unity in face of enemy schemes to cause division.
He reiterated his June declaration that the biggest opposition to the regime is the people. Reza Pahlavi outlined that an inclusive interim government must be formed on the day of overthrow, and stated that the form of government will be determined by a referendum.
Now here is the important point. Reza Pahlavi does not make a case for himself to play a political role. He did not specifically rule out anything here, stating that he will respect the choice of the people. This means that if Iranians choose a constitutional monarchy, he will accept it. I do think it is unlikely that he will decline being made head of state as he would be constitutionally entitled to do. He does not need to make the case for himself, but he is doing so anyway by word and deed.
I base this on experience. The Norwegian example, in which Prince Carl of Denmark became King Haakon VII of Norway after a referendum (which he insisted on when the offer was made) is most the instructive example here. Likewise in the 1999 referendum in Australia, the Royal Family did not campaign for the monarchy and it is not their job to do so.
Although not a monarchist case, East Timor’s first President Xanana Gusmao was widely considered to be a reluctant leader, but he was nevertheless elected to the presidency and later governed as prime minister.
It is not the job of Reza Pahlavi to campaign for his own role in the future. If Iranian monarchists want it to be the return of the monarchy, they need to start working now on a manifesto to achieve that goal. This must also go in line with a common manifesto for overthrowing the regime and setting conditions to determine Iran’s future.
Here I throw the gauntlet to all legitimate Iranian opposition groups:
Prepare yourselves for overthrowing the regime. Outline in a common manifesto how will the regime be overthrown, and how will its structures be dismantled. I envision it being some kind of junta which will proclaim the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, appointing a provisional government to run the country. The most likely option will be restoring Iran’s original constitution, and then holding a consistent assembly to suitably modify it, and then placing it before a referendum.
Monarchists and other groups must outline their proposals for the future of Iran in party platforms. The platforms must be able to persuade the Iranian public that their vision of Iran is a worthy one. Reza Pahlavi stressed that the content of a governing system is more important than the form here. My point here, as someone who prefers a monarchy, is that the case has to be made in a way that takes into account current realities (especially Middle East ones) about the benefits of the system, and that it is the system and content more than the individual which must be emphasised here.
Prepare yourselves for the responsibility of governing. If it is to be a constitutional monarchy, it will not be Reza Pahlavi himself but monarchists who will be the ones responsible for day-to-day governance. This is why I urge you to start now working on your plans.
Lastly, please, please, PLASE stop the childish infighting and division among yourselves. I have been a friend to so many anti-regime Iranians and support them wholeheartedly. Too much infighting, distrust and paranoia abounds in anti-regime circles, and some have even fallen into the disinformation trap (including about Reza Pahlavi and his family) created by regime agents.
I do not say these words lightly, because of the sense of urgency. In both his June speech and in his speech this week, Reza Pahlavi has basically challenged the opposition (including monarchists) to step up to the plate. It is not about one person, it is not about yourself, it is about doing what is best for everyone.