Losing may not be enough for Russia
Is it time to consider Russia's dissolution?
I’ll hand it to them. Russia’s war propaganda demonstrates what we’ve always known about them and their attitude towards Central and Eastern Europe - a brutal, genocidal intent which has not changed regardless of branding. Can one feel empathy for those Russians, regardless of political persuasion, who genuinely oppose this war and are appalled by what is happening? I’ve covered it here before in the interests of fairness.
However, for the nations of Central and Eastern Europe there surely is no turning back. It isn’t enough for Ukraine and its heroic fighters to secure victory in this existential war. It isn’t enough for Russia to be defeated. For them, for many, there is the option that Russia should be divided and lands returned to the nations and peoples it conquered over the last 500 years.
Some in the West wax lyrical about Russian opposition to the Putin regime, unaware that even the most “progressive” of them are far from being liberal in a contemporary Western sense. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, per se, but on the nationality question it is impossible to distinguish the standpoint of the Putin regime and its domestic opposition, which largely excludes the perspectives of Russia’s ethnic minorities and regions.
It is not inconceivable that the CEE nations will seek to make common cause with Russia’s ethnic minorities, given the strong antipathy to Russian imperialism shared among them. The perception of Russian attitudes towards non-Russian nationalities being reinforced by this war is also going to reinforce the idea that Russia is irredeemable and unreformable, which will only strengthen support for non-Russian ethnic groups in Russia: Karelia, Ingria, Circassia, Chechnya, Dagestan, Tatarstan (Idel-Ural), Tuva, etc.
Moreover, the nations of CEE will see this as a definitive solution for their own peace and security.