Japan's election: a clear conservative mandate
Not only a comfortable LDP victory, but a major victory for conservatism in Japan
At the end of October, Japan held an election in which the outcome defined many expectations because of its predictability: the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) government of new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, despite losing seats, continued its near-permanent domination of Japanese politics.
Kishida succeeded Yoshide Suga, who in turn succeeded the still powerful Shinzo Abe who served eight years in his second spell as Prime Minister. Predictions that the LDP would lose its sole majority in the lower house, let alone lose control of government, proved to be completely unfounded.
In fact, an analysis of the election results demonstrate that while the LDP/Komeito coalition lost seats in this election (which can be explained by the Japanese electoral system which combines FPTP and PR bloc voting), it was nowhere near the predictions made by some media both inside and outside of Japan, and its share of the popular vote has largely remained steady.
The “progressive” camp, that is the main opposition party CDP, SDP, Reiwa and JCP, performed poorly. Meanwhile, two “opposition conservative” parties, the Osaka-based Ishin and the DPP (or DPFP), made gains. The constant reorganisation and rebranding of parties - the DPJ merged with smaller groups to form the DP in 2016, and subsequent reorganisations have created the CDP and DPP - has done little to inspire confidence among voters. This is coupled with the fact that the LDP, Komeito and JCP (to some extent Ishin in Osaka) are viewed as the only parties considered to have effective organisation.
In fact, when you combine the votes of the LDP, Komeito, Ishin and DPP, it amounts to at least 60% of the popular vote for the conservative camp, and three-quarters of seats in the lower house. Should this be replicated in the upper house election in 2022, Kishida’s government will have a comfortable mandate for constitutional revision and a hawkish foreign policy.
Most people seem to either get Japanese politics wrong, or just don’t understand why the LDP has remained the dominant party in the country. The three-year experience of DPJ government from 2009 to 2012 (not to mention the brief period of non-LDP coalition in 1993-94), was viewed by the public as underwhelming or incompetent. The majority of the electorate is largely content with the LDP, or tends to believe the alternative will be worse for Japan. This doesn’t mean, however, that politics and elections in Japan are boring - the existence of perennial “joke” candidates ensures they are not!
But it also underlines why comparisons with Western democracies are difficult. In the English-speaking world, that is to say the UK, USA and the Commonwealth nations, the electoral systems tend to favour a two-party pattern with sometimes intense tribal party loyalty. In Spain, Portugal and Mexico, voting patterns are influenced by history with the experiences of civil war, revolution and authoritarianism. On the other hand, traditional party allegiances have either eroded or collapsed in a number of Western European democracies. None of these factors are operative in Japan.
Business as usual then…