Is Sweden ready for a political revolution?
A historic change in Swedish politics is inevitable regardless of how government formation goes.
Jimmie Akesson (left), leader of the Sweden Democrats. Ulf Kristersson (right), leader of the Moderate Party.
Ask American “liberals” or even their British counterparts what their “ideal” kind of society, the majority of responses given is “Scandinavia”. Except that we know that’s really not the case (for many it’s rather more like Venezuela, Cuba and China), and what they think Scandinavia is hasn’t been quite the reality of the last two to three decades.
In Sweden, Norway and Denmark, the long-cherished social democratic model began to change in the 80s and 90s with liberal economic reforms (which didn’t alter the basic welfare state model), and then growing anxieties in the debate over immigration and multiculturalism, which became heated in the post-9/11 Culture War in which Scandinavia has occasionally been in the limelight for a myriad of reasons.
Denmark had began a major political shift in the 1980s, when the Conservative Poul Schlüter was able to form government and hold office for 11 years. In fact from 1982 until 2019, centre-right governments were in power for 25 out of 37 years. The Venstre (Liberal)-led coalition governments from 2001 until 2011 and again from 2015 to 2019 were supported by the Danish People’s Party, who have been one of the most successful and influential populist parties in Western Europe.
Successful and influential because they have produced a remarkable shift in Danish politics, not least on issues of migration, asylum, integration and national identity that has seen not only the centre-right parties but even the Social Democrats under Mette Frederiksen (in office again since 2019) support what is now one of Western Europe’s strictest policies on these issues. The most recent asylum law was with support from conservative parties, showing a remarkable consensus on the issue.
So what does this mean for Sweden, which is now in a political crisis? The weak Social Democratic minority government of Stefan Löfven lost a confidence vote in the Riksdag, meaning that a new government will have to be formed to see out the parliamentary term due to end in 2022. (Update: Löfven has been voted back in, by virtue of two parties abstaining due to the principle of negative parliamentarism)
But what any new election would show, of course, is the remarkable shift in Swedish politics with a potential to follow Denmark. It would be even more remarkable because of Sweden’s long-cherished self-image as an egalitarian, humanitarian welfare state - although I will be more direct and say synonymous with wokeness and virtue-signalling in domestic and foreign policy, and this goes back decades. And Swedish society today is seeing the consequences of a lot of that.
Since 1936, Sweden has had centre-right governments for a total of only 17 years (1976-82, 1991-94 and 2006-14). The Social Democrats for decades almost never went below 40% of the popular vote (the last time was 1994), and even exceeded 50% on occasion (e.g. 1968). Their 2018 vote share was their lowest in over a century, and the erosion of support is such that polls suggest the combined votes of Social Democrats, Greens and Left wouldn’t go far beyond 40%
The big change since 2010 has been the rise of the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats (SD), who in 2014 became the third-largest party in the Riksdag and increased their share of the vote in 2018. In fact, the gap between Social Democrats, Moderates and Sweden Democrats isn’t that large now. The rise of SD can be likened to that of the Danish People’s Party (though the latter was a split of an earlier populist party, the Progress Party), along with its potential to shake up the Swedish political landscape.
However, neither the “left” nor “right” blocs in Swedish politics were prepared to work with SD, let alone allow them into government. Until now. The Moderates, Christian Democrats and most recently Liberals have all changed their mind on the issue, with only the Centre Party standing firm on not doing so at the moment.
Whether Sweden’s centre-right parties follow their Danish counterparts and move to the Right on issues such as immigration, crime and national identity remains to be seen. The potential exists for SD either to enter a coalition government or be able to influence policy from the outside in the manner of the Danish People’s Party. This was unthinkable only a few years ago. But it also shows the impact populist movements have had in pressuring many of Europe’s traditional centre-right parties to move further Right on issues like migration, law and order, national identity and free speech.
Still unthinkable, at this stage, is the prospect of the Swedish Social Democrats following their Danish counterparts. The Danish Social Democrats have embraced a position that places them to the Right of the US Democrats and UK Labour parties, both of whom are increasingly beholden to their most radical elements hostile to Western Civilisation. A number of Europe’s traditional centre-left parties are struggling for relevance today, and it would astonish many outside Sweden if this were to be the case.
The political landscape of Sweden is set to change dramatically despite Löfven being able to form a new (and very weak) government. Fragmentation and polarisation are features of every Western democracy (the most recent Dutch election a case in point), and Sweden is no different. And its challenges as acute as any.
Moreover, English-speaking progressives’ perception of Scandinavia as the benchmark for their imagined social and economic model no longer resembles reality. The lesson of Denmark should, however, demonstrate that the most revolutionary shift in politics has not come in the economic sphere, but in the cultural sphere where a scepticism towards the dogmas of mass immigration and multiculturalism has become firmly mainstream. It would be even more dramatic, and perhaps even more symbolic, for the political mainstream in Sweden to embrace this line. Bringing the Sweden Democrats into the circle would only be the first step.