Crime will be the ALP's undoing in Queensland and NT

Natasha Fyles latest head of government to resign, leaving a sinking Labor ship

The fallout from losing the Voice referendum, along with housing and living costs pressures, aren’t the only headaches for the poorly performing Labor government of Anthony Albanese. Since the referendum, albeit for reasons not directly related to it, two Labor heads of government have resigned - Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, and Northern Territory minister Natasha Fyles, who resigned this week because of a scandal relating to her ownership of shares in mining.

I say “not directly related” because the defeat of the Voice (both Queensland and NT voted No) was not the cause of it, owing to the unpopularity of both Labor governments preceding the referendum. Youth crime plagues parts of both Queensland and NT, and this is a far more pressing issue for locals than symbolism. And neither government has done anything concrete to address it.

Certainly, Labor has been in office in Queensland (since 2015) and Northern Territory (since 2016) for quite a while, so it’s reasonable to expect both governments to have the same issues common to all such governments. But both governments' unpopularity pointing to decisive defeats next year will confound the narratives that have been established since Albanese became Prime Minister.

As 2023 draws to a close, Australian progressives’ plans look to be in tatters. Since 2022 they believed that long-term Labor dominance of the Australian political system would give them the opportunity to permanently transform Australia in their image. It’s not going to happen. But defeat in the Voice referendum, mounting economic and geopolitical challenges, and falling approval ratings make a one-term government a distinct possibility.

Defeats for Labor in Queensland and the Northern Territory may not necessarily be fatal to the federal Labor government, but it will make things a lot harder.