Argentina: an existential election
A political tectonic shift is underway in a perpetually economically troubled nation
With one of the world’s highest inflation rates and a worthless currency (again!), Argentina has more than had enough. So much that the primary election produced the kind of political earthquake everyone should have seen coming.
Javier Milei is not a typical politician. But that’s precisely the reason for his stunning success: he’s going against the grind in a country which has long seemingly resisted conventional economic wisdom, falling back into the arms of Peronism (a phenomenon which defies easy categorisation) now and then. But that affair may soon be over if the primary results are anything to go by: Milei’s radical right-libertarian bloc won the most PASO (primary) votes, the liberal-conservative bloc (JxC) second with the more conservative candidate Patricia Bullrich being their preferred choice, and the Peronist coalition is in third place with the more moderate Sergio Massa getting the nod.
Similar to South Africa’s election next year, Argentina’s upcoming election in October is the most important in a generation. In fact, like South Africa it may well be taking upon an existential dimension: can Argentina be saved, or is it doomed to its present woes? Many Argentines despair at the present state of affairs, and some even consider emigrating (often, with a touch of irony, to “Anglo” nations like the USA, Canada and Australia)*.
The urgency of the situation coupled with the staleness of the existing political settlement is likely enough to motivate people to radically re-order Argentina’s political scene in the hope they can put their country on the right track. Similarly in South Africa, there is an urgency to fight against an ANC regime which is running the country into the ground. Both South Africa and Argentina are too important to be in the territory of failure. And voters know it.
* The irony I’m referring to here is Argentina’s complex relationship with the English-speaking world, compounded no less by the Falklands War. Argentina, Chile and Uruguay (the “Southern Cone” nations) are markedly different from the rest of Latin America in culture, demographic and economic structure, and in some ways more in common with English-speaking nations. As an aside, prominent Argentine conservative politician Cynthia Hotton has an Australian grandfather.